Neighbourhood-level socio-demographic characteristics and risk of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Ontario, Canada: A population-based study

Objectives: We aimed to estimate associations between COVID-19 incidence and mortality with neighbourhood-level immigration, race, housing, and socio-economic characteristics. Methods: We conducted a population-based study of 28,808 COVID-19 cases in the provincial reportable infectious disease surveillance systems (Public Health Case and Contact Management System) which includes all known COVID-19 infections and deaths from Ontario, Canada reported between January 23, 2020 and July 28, 2020. Residents of congregate settings, Indigenous communities living on reserves or small neighbourhoods with populations <1,000 were excluded. Comparing neighbourhoods in the 90th to the 10th percentiles of socio-demographic characteristics, we estimated the associations between 18 neighbourhood-level measures of immigration, race, housing and socio-economic characteristics and COVID-19 incidence and mortality using Poisson generalized linear mixed models. Results: Neighbourhoods with the highest proportion of immigrants (relative risk (RR): 4.0, 95% CI:3.5–4.5) and visible minority residents (RR: 3.3, 95%CI:2.9–3.7) showed the strongest association with COVID-19 incidence in adjusted models. Among individual race groups, COVID-19 incidence was highest among neighbourhoods with the high proportions of Black (RR: 2.4, 95%CI:2.2–2.6), South Asian (RR: 1.9, 95%CI:1.8–2.1), Latin American (RR: 1.8, 95%CI:1.6–2.0) and Middle Eastern (RR: 1.2, 95%CI:1.1–1.3) residents. Neighbourhoods with the highest average household size (RR: 1.9, 95%CI:1.7–2.1), proportion of multigenerational families (RR: 1.8, 95%CI:1.7–2.0) and unsuitably crowded housing (RR: 2.1, 95% CI:2.0–2.3) were associated with COVID-19 incidence. Neighbourhoods with the highest proportion of residents with less than high school education (RR: 1.6, 95%CI:1.4–1.8), low income (RR: 1.4, 95%CI:1.2–1.5) and unaffordable housing (RR: 1.6, 95%CI:1.4–1.8) were associated with COVID-19 incidence. Similar inequities were observed across neighbourhood-level sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 mortality. Conclusions: Neighbourhood-level inequities in COVID-19 incidence and mortality were observed in Ontario, with excess burden experienced in neighbourhoods with a higher proportion of immigrants, racialized populations, large households and low socio-economic status.